ACI Five-year Average of Climate Extremes Continues Upward
Washington and Arlington, Va. and Schaumburg, Ill. and Ottawa, Nov. 15, 2018 - Organizations
representing the actuarial profession in Canada and the United States report new
Actuaries Climate Index®
(ACI) data, showing that the five-year moving average of climate extremes and sea
level across the two countries reached a new high with data released for winter
"Rising sea levels and more frequent high temperatures are sustaining the long-term
trend of higher ACI values," says Doug Collins, Chair of the Climate Index Working
Group, which helped develop the index.
Measured with the new winter 2017–18 data included, the five-year moving average
of the ACI increased to 1.23, compared to 1.19 in fall 2017, the last period with available data from the ACI. The
elevated index value reflects continued deviation of climate and sea level extremes
from historical levels for the two countries.
The decline in the last seasonal ACI value did not keep the five-year moving average
from rising. "The seasonal index value for winter 2017–18 was 1.08, compared to
2.00 in the fall, and an average of 1.83 for the previous nine seasons combined,
but still well above any of the seasonal values in the reference period, and it
replaced a much lower value in the moving five-year average," says Collins.
The ACI is based on analysis of seasonal data from neutral, scientific sources for
the six index components collected since 1961. The index measures changes in extremes
of high and low temperatures, high winds, heavy precipitation, and drought, as well
as changes in sea level, expressed in units of standard deviations from the mean
for the 30-year reference period of 1961 to 1990 for the United States and Canada
combined and by region. "Actuaries view the five-year average index as a much more
stable measure of the direction of the index than the fluctuating seasonal values,"
The index, jointly sponsored by the American Academy of Actuaries, the Canadian
Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, and the Society of Actuaries,
is designed to provide actuaries, public policymakers, and the general public with
objective data about changes in the frequency of extreme climate events over recent
Updated values are posted quarterly on ActuariesClimateIndex.org as data for each meteorological season
becomes available. The organizations are also in the process of developing a second
index, the Actuaries Climate Risk Index, to measure correlations between changes
in the frequency of extreme events as measured by the index and economic losses,
mortality, and injuries.
About the Sponsoring Organizations
The American Academy of Actuaries
is a 19,500-member professional association whose mission is to serve the public
and the U.S. actuarial profession. For more than 50 years, the Academy has assisted
public policymakers on all levels by providing leadership, objective expertise,
and actuarial advice on risk and financial security issues. The Academy also sets
qualification, practice, and professionalism standards for actuaries in the United
The Canadian Institute of Actuaries
(CIA) is the national, bilingual organization and voice of the actuarial profession
in Canada. Its 5,500 members are dedicated to providing actuarial services and advice
of the highest quality. The Institute holds the duty of the profession to the public
above the needs of the profession and its members.
The Casualty Actuarial Society
(CAS) is a leading international organization for credentialing and professional
education. Founded in 1914, the CAS is the world's only actuarial organization focused
exclusively on property and casualty risks and serves over 8,000 members worldwide.
Professionals educated by the CAS empower business and government to make well-informed
strategic, financial and operational decisions.
With roots dating back to 1889, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial professional
organization with more than 30,000 actuaries as members. Through research and education,
the SOA's mission is to advance actuarial knowledge and to enhance the ability of
actuaries to provide expert advice and relevant solutions for financial, business
and societal challenges. The SOA's vision is for actuaries to be the leading professionals
in the measurement and management of risk.